The No. 1, 2 and 3 seeds in the NCAA tourney bowed out over the weekend. Everyone has said how unpredictable this year has been and last weekend did not disappoint. The best part is that any one of the four teams in the Final Four this weekend in Kansas City has a shot at winning the whole thing.
I can't remember the last time there wasn't at least one team in the Final Four who had no shot at making it past the semis. Even just last year it was clear that neither Minnesota nor Hawaii had a snowball's chance of taking out powerhouses Texas or Penn State in the semis. We all knew who would be in that final match. And oh, what a final it was.
But the silver lining of those teams coming back down to earth due to the graduation of some incredible players is that now there is a real parity that we haven't seen in a long time, if ever. It is making for some awesome matches and an exciting end to a great season.
My only complaint is that the match-ups should be flip-flopped. Penn State should be taking on USC and Cal should be playing Texas in the semifinals. It would make for a better story for Penn State and Texas to get their re-match in the finals or for Cal to have to find a way to beat USC for the third time for all the marbles.
Of the four remaining teams we'll see this weekend, I can't even venture a guess as to who'll end up the champion. Penn State is not the team it once was but they still know how to win and they seem to be peaking at exactly the right time. It would not surprise me in the least if they managed to win their fourth straight title. What a motivating factor for those players.
Then there's Cal who, of the remaining teams, was ranked the highest at the end of the regular season according to the AVCA. They are the only squad to get to the Final Four by shutting out all their opponents thus far. One of those opponents was a very hot Washington team that they took on in Seattle. This Cal team is hungry and they don't appear to be letting anything get in the way of their ultimate goal.
Texas is another hot-handed team that came within inches of upsetting juggernaut Penn State in last year's final. Now they'll get another shot at them in the semis. This game will have some extra meaning for the Longhorns and I expect them to leave it all on the floor.
USC is a wild card. They are a strong team and they are playing well right now. But they are young and they depend very heavily on a great but inexperienced outside hitter. Hopefully, the announcers will pronounce Falyn Fonoimoana's name a little better than they did last week because they're going to be saying it a lot this weekend.
The Trojans certainly have the least to lose because they'll clearly be strong for years to come and will have more title chances. That could be just enough to have them playing loose and comfortably while the others are as tight as a drum. Or the experienced players on the other side could exploit their youth and use that to dismantle them.
No matter the outcome, I love that there is no foregone conclusion this year. There is no juggernaut. There is no lamb being led to the slaughter. Everyone is talented and everyone is beatable. Get out the popcorn, folks. This is going to be a good one.
Comments
(Writing this after the semis, but before the final) — It’s interesting that, as strong as Texas and USC were or have been this season, both looked absolutely shell-shocked in the first set of their matches and went downhill from there. The importance of mental toughness just can’t be overestimated. I wonder how the different coaches prepared their teams for this, or if the players thought they were prepared but really weren’t.
After watching those matches, I expect PSU to handle Cal, but I really like the fight in the Cal setter. She doesn’t give up on the ball.